How to Exploit an Opposing Pitcher Who Crumbles With Runners On Base

A 5-Minute Read Every College Baseball Coach Needs Before Series Prep

Coaches, you already study the stats sheets, spray charts, and pitch usage. But one of the fastest ways to hang crooked numbers on an opposing pitcher is to identify pitchers who fall apart the moment traffic appears on the bases.

The two red flags you’re looking for:

1. A Low LOB% (Left On Base percentage)
   League-average LOB% in college baseball usually sits 70–73%. If your upcoming starter is sitting at 62–66% (or lower), he’s consistently failing to strand runners.
2. A Big ERA vs. FIP Gap
   When ERA is 0.75–1.50+ runs higher than FIP (or xFIP), it almost always means the pitcher is getting punished by balls in play and sequencing — classic symptoms of “can’t pitch out of the stretch” or “loses the zone with men on.”

These two indicators together scream: This guy is exploitable the moment we make him work from the stretch.

Step-by-Step Game Plan to Attack Him

1. Early-Count Aggression (First 3 Pitches)
   Low-LOB% pitchers often survive early in games because they face mostly leadoff hitters with the bases empty. Jump him early. Take your normal approach in the 1st inning, but starting in the 2nd inning (once you’ve seen him), be ready to swing at pitcher’s pitches if they’re in the zone. The goal: get a runner on before he records an out.
2. Manufacture Traffic Any Way Possible

• Steal second aggressively (especially with your 3-4-5 guys who can drive them in).
• Hit-and-run or run-and-hit with two strikes to protect runners.
• Use the bunt/slash game with your 7-8-9 hitters to keep the line moving and force him to throw from the stretch repeatedly.

1. Force Him Into “Uncomfortable” Counts With Men On
   These pitchers typically have a huge FB% split when the bases are empty vs. occupied. Make him throw 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 secondary pitches instead of pounding 0-0/1-0 fastballs at the top of the zone. Take borderline pitches early in counts with runners on — his walk rate usually spikes.
2. Middle-In Approach With Runners in Scoring Position
   Most college pitchers who struggle in these situations start yanking fastballs to the pull side or burying sliders to avoid the barrel. Sit middle-in and react away — you’ll run into a lot of mistakes over the heart of the plate.
3. Situational Two-Strike Approach
   Widen out and choke up. These arms tend to lose the zone entirely trying to “pitch around” your best hitters. A walk is as good as a double when this profile is on the mound.

Quick Scouting Report Cheat Sheet You Can Hand Your Hitters

“If the pitcher has:

• LOB% under 67%
• ERA at least 0.75 higher than FIP

We are NOT taking early strikes with the bases empty after the 1st inning.
We are stealing early and often.
We are putting the ball in play with runners on — he can’t strand them.”